The decline of adult smallpox in eighteenth-century London.

Smallpox was probably the single most lethal disease in eighteenth-century Britain, but was a minor cause of death by the mid-nineteenth century. Although vaccination was crucial to the decline of smallpox, especially in urban areas, from the beginning of the nineteenth century, it remains disputed the extent to which smallpox mortality declined before vaccination. Analysis of age-specific changes in smallpox burials within the large west London parish of St Martin-in-the-Fields revealed a precipitous reduction in adult smallpox risk from the 1770s, and this pattern was duplicated in the east London parish of St Dunstan's. Most adult smallpox victims were rural migrants, and such a drop in their susceptibility is consistent with a sudden increase in exposure to smallpox in rural areas. We investigated whether this was due to the spread of inoculation, or an increase in smallpox transmission, using changes in the age patterns of child smallpox burials. Smallpox mortality rose among infants, and smallpox burials became concentrated at the youngest ages, suggesting a sudden increase in infectiousness of the smallpox virus. Such a change intensified the process of smallpox endemicization in the English population, but also made cities substantially safer for young adult migrants.We would like to thank the Wellcome Trust, Award no. 081508, for funding the research on St Martin-in-the-Fields ... Romola Davenport was partially funded by a Wellcome strategic award, ‘Generation to Reproduction’

A General Framework for Sound and Complete Floyd-Hoare Logics

This paper presents an abstraction of Hoare logic to traced symmetric monoidal categories, a very general framework for the theory of systems. Our abstraction is based on a traced monoidal functor from an arbitrary traced monoidal category into the category of pre-orders and monotone relations. We give several examples of how our theory generalises usual Hoare logics (partial correctness of while programs, partial correctness of pointer programs), and provide some case studies on how it can be used to develop new Hoare logics (run-time analysis of while programs and stream circuits).Comment: 27 page

Cascading the use of Web 2.0 technology in secondary schools in the United Kingdom: identifying the barriers beyond pre-service training

This paper reports on research that took place at Nottingham Trent University and Sheffield Hallam University, United Kingdom, over two years. The research focuses on the use of Web 2.0 technology, specifically web logs, with pre-service teachers, both during their university programme and the first year of teaching as full-time newly qualified teachers (NQTs). The purpose of this research was to add a developing body of knowledge by identifying whether technology used by pre-service teachers during their training course can be cascaded into their practice once qualified. Key findings identify a number of enablers and barriers to cascading technology in the classroom; these include curriculum time, pupil skills and support. The research concludes that early professional support and development should be on-going and assumptions about new teachers as champions of cascading innovative use of Web 2 technologies into their practice as NQTs may be over optimisti

Does authentic self‐esteem buffer the negative effects of bullying victimization on social anxiety and classroom concentration? Evidence from a short‐term longitudinal study with early adolescents

From Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2022-01-10, rev-recd 2022-12-05, accepted 2022-12-10, pub-electronic 2022-12-22Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedBackground: Bullying victimization is a risk factor for social anxiety and disrupted classroom concentration among young people. Self‐esteem has been implicated as a protective factor, but extant literature is sparse. Aims: Aim of present study was to test if a new measure of authentic self‐esteem can buffer the negative effects of bullying victimization on social anxiety and disrupted classroom concentration concurrently and across time. Sample: A short‐term longitudinal questionnaire design was employed with 836 12‐ and 13‐year‐olds. Methods: Peer nominations of bullying victimization and self‐reports of authentic self‐esteem were collected during winter term, and self‐reports of social anxiety and disrupted classroom concentration were solicited then and also 5 months later. Results: Hierarchical multiple regression models indicated that authentic self‐esteem moderated the association between bullying victimization and (i) social anxiety both concurrently and longitudinally and (ii) disrupted classroom concentration longitudinally. The Johnson‐Neyman technique identified where on its scale authentic self‐esteem had its buffering effects, and these were found to be at relatively low or moderate levels. Conclusions: Even moderate levels of authentic self‐esteem can mitigate the association between being bullied and (i) social anxiety and (ii) disrupted classroom concentration. Efforts to monitor and where necessary enhance the authentic self‐esteem of young people are warranted

A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: Estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies

Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.James J. Gilroy, Thomas Virzi, Rebecca L. Boulton, and Julie L. Lockwoo

Enhancing primary school children's knowledge of online safety and risks with the CATZ cooperative cross-age teaching intervention: results from a pilot study

Children are heavy users of the internet and prior studies have shown that many of them lack a good understanding of the risks of doing so and how to avoid them. This study examined if the Cross-Age Teaching Zone (CATZ) intervention could help children acquire important knowledge of online risks and safety. It allowed older students to act as CATZ tutors to design and deliver a lesson to younger schoolmates (tutees), using content material about online risks and safety provided by adults. Students in Year 6 (mean age = 11.5 years) were randomly assigned to act as either CATZ tutors (n= 100) or age-matched controls (n = 46) and students in Year 4 (mean age = 9.5 years) acted as either CATZ tutees (n = 117) or age-matched controls (n = 28) (total N = 291). CATZ tutors but not matched controls scored significantly higher on objective measures of knowledge of both online risks and safety, and CATZ tutees but not matched controls did so for online safety. Effect sizes were moderate or large. CATZ was highly acceptable to participants. The results suggest that CATZ is a viable way to help school students learn about online dangers and how to avoid them

Lie discrete symmetries of lattice equations

We extend two of the methods previously introduced to find discrete symmetries of differential equations to the case of difference and differential-difference equations. As an example of the application of the methods, we construct the discrete symmetries of the discrete Painlev\'e I equation and of the Toda lattice equation

On Non Commutative G2 structure

Using an algebraic orbifold method, we present non-commutative aspects of $G_2$ structure of seven dimensional real manifolds. We first develop and solve the non commutativity parameter constraint equations defining $G_2$ manifold algebras. We show that there are eight possible solutions for this extended structure, one of which corresponds to the commutative case. Then we obtain a matrix representation solving such algebras using combinatorial arguments. An application to matrix model of M-theory is discussed.Comment: 16 pages, Latex. Typos corrected, minor changes. Version to appear in J. Phys.A: Math.Gen.(2005

The play's the thing

For very understandable reasons phenomenological approaches predominate in the field of sensory urbanism. This paper does not seek to add to that particular discourse. Rather it takes Rorty’s postmodernized Pragmatism as its starting point and develops a position on the role of multi-modal design representation in the design process as a means of admitting many voices and managing multidisciplinary collaboration. This paper will interrogate some of the concepts underpinning the Sensory Urbanism project to help define the scope of interest in multi-modal representations. It will then explore a range of techniques and approaches developed by artists and designers during the past fifty years or so and comment on how they might inform the question of multi-modal representation. In conclusion I will argue that we should develop a heterogeneous tool kit that adopts, adapts and re-invents existing methods because this will better serve our purposes during the exploratory phase(s) of any design project that deals with complexity